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Yoweri Museveni
John Garang
LRA
Sudan
Uganda

Main Article:

Two stories involving Uganda have been covered in the international media in the last month (August 2005). The first was the recent 'yes' vote in a referendum on the reintroduction of political parties after two decades of rule by the National Resistance Movement (NRM) - known simply as the 'Movement', it is the sole political entity in the country, of which all Ugandans are theoretically members. The second was a helicopter crash in the mountainous area between Sudan and Uganda that killed Sudanese Vice-President John Garang. His death constitutes a major setback to Uganda’s prospects for a meaningful transition to democracy.

President Museveni’s campaign for a ‘yes’ vote and the initiation of the transition to multi-party democracy have been heralded by some international observers as a rare example of an African leader ready to cede power after a long term of office. The President has been under sustained pressure from donors, the source of around 50% of Uganda’s budget, to push forward democratic reform. However, the response from opposition leaders within Uganda is less enthusiastic; calling for a boycott of the referendum, opposition legislator Omara Atubo pointed out that last month’s controversial decision to lift presidential term limits will allow Museveni to stand again during the elections scheduled for next year. Atubo called the transition a ‘façade’, which would allow the President to continue to rule while appeasing Western calls for democratisation.

Uganda has a diverse political history split along monarchist, republican, political, religious and ethnic lines. Infamous for the brutality of the Idi Amin regime in the 1970s, power has changed hands by force five times since independence in 1962. Museveni’s rule was also begun by force: the guerilla force, the National Resistance Army (NRA), have remained central to the Movement government since their deposition of the previous leader, Tito Okello.

Removing the army from the centre of government will be a major challenge in the transition to democracy. One of the main justifications for its continued prominence is the ongoing struggle with the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), led by self-proclaimed prophet Joseph Kony. A conflict complicated by the involvement of Sudan’s Northern government, whom Uganda has accused of arming the rebels. In turn, Khartoum has objected to Uganda’s support for Garang’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA).

Garang’s fateful visit to Uganda would have been an important step towards ending this impasse. There were high hopes that the final recognition of his role as leader in the South and his recent appointment as Vice-President would end the long-running conflict in Sudan and hence Uganda’s quarrel with the Khartoum government. The object of Garang’s meeting with Museveni was to approve Uganda’s pursuit of the LRA into Sudanese territory. A stable government in Southern Sudan would have been a major step towards establishing effective control over the area and depriving the LRA of sanctuary. Garang’s death sparked off severe riots and has plunged the future of Sudan into renewed doubt: as one SPLA officer commented, Garang’s boots were ‘too large to fill’, factional struggles rumoured before his death may now be confirmed.

For Uganda, Garang’s death scuppers plans to oust the LRA from Sudan. This means the continuation of the armed struggle in the North and a decreased likelihood that the army will withdraw from centre stage in Ugandan politics any time soon. This is not the first time plans to end the ongoing conflict have been stalled at the last minute: most recently the efforts of Minister Betty Bigombe to negotiate a ceasefire ended in defeat after Museveni issued a seven day ultimatum for an agreement. It has been previously noted that the continuation of the conflict allows the President to keep defence spending high and the army a central part of the administration. In addition, peace in the North would almost inevitably lead to a change of administration in multi-party elections: Northerners, who largely resent both the LRA and the administration after years of fighting and displacement, demonstrated their wish for a change of regime in both the 1996 and 2001 Presidential elections.

Garang’s death brings to mind other ‘accidents’ occurring at crucial moments in the careers of key political figures. The current situation is reminiscent of the death in 1994 of Rwanda’s President Habyarimana and Burundi’s Cyprien Ntaryarima, whose plane was shot down as they returned from a conference aimed at ending the ongoing violence between Hutus and Tutsis in both countries. The chaos that followed sparked the now infamous 1994 Rwandan genocide. Most believe Garang’s death was the result of bad weather, however, some have raised questions about circumstances surrounding the crash. K-FM journalist, Izuma Angelo, published an article in the Kampala-based Monitor on 11 August in which he compares Garang’s death to a Shakespearean drama. Pointing out that relations between Museveni and Garang were ‘less than cordial’ immediately prior to the accident, he highlights the unusual elements of Garang’s visit: the lack of diplomatic clearance, the night journey, the conflicting reports released in Sudan and the Middle East that Garang had survived the crash and was either being held in LRA-controlled territory, or being rescued. As Angelo points out, several parties desired the removal of Garang: rivals within the SPLA leadership, Islamist hardliners in the Khartoum government, and hostile elements in Rwanda are all possible beneficiaries, as are those elements in Uganda that would benefit from the continuation of the war in the North. As discussed above, many would suggest that the latter include President Museveni himself, as well as the LRA.

K-FM radio station, Angelo’s employers and a subsidiary of Monitor Publications, who published the article referred to above, was closed down indefinitely on 12 August, after broadcasting a program raising similar issues over Garang’s death. Like the ongoing prominence of the army, media censorship has been a pervasive feature of both the Museveni administration and those of his predecessors, and one that has been justified by the conflict with the LRA as being in the interests of ‘national security’. Like the transition away from a military-dominated administration, freedom of the press is essential if the transition to democracy is to be meaningful.

If, as he claims, Museveni is committed to investigating Garang’s death, the investigation must be full, transparent, and freely reported in the media. This would help to prevent the escalation of the conflict in Southern Sudan as well as convincing the world that the transition to multi-party democracy is more than a façade constructed to allow the continuation of Museveni’s rule with a new legitimacy.

A transparent investigation would also make a more convincing case against Museveni’s involvement in Garang’s death than suppressing journalists who hint at how much he stood to gain from the death of his supposed ally. To show that he is committed to continuing Garang's work, Museveni must also work to end the conflict with the LRA rather than frustrating the efforts of those who have tried to reach a solution. The removal of the army from the centre of Ugandan politics is essential for the complete transition to democracy, and will not happen until the conflict is finally resolved.